Past and projected trends in extreme precipitation in north-western Europe.

In the current context of climate change, there is a particular interest in the evolution of climatic extremes, especially as climate change seems to be resulting in an exacerbation of extremes beyond average warming. This offer of a funded thesis proposes to work on rainfall extremes, both past and future.

Extreme rainfall is not well represented in the various climate models. Modelling is based on climate normals over average time periods (generally 30 years) (IPCC, 2021). However, extreme precipitation events occur outside the concepts of statistical averages, which is why this type of modelling tends not to be representative of reality.

In order to better understand the evolution of extreme precipitation events in north-western Europe, it is proposed in this thesis offer to analyse extreme precipitation, using threshold analysis (after testing and defining new thresholds, Easterling et al., 2020) and other climatic statistical indices, and to try to detect significant trends on these newly determined indices (Alexander et al., 2006, Scherrer et al., 2016).

In a second phase, the projection of these new climate indices will have to be integrated into the future climate scenarios that have been selected, in order to serve as a working basis for the project partners.

A complementary approach to extreme precipitation could also include an analysis of dry sequences over time. Emerging trends in dry sequences seem to be appearing in the context of climate change, but this remains to be specified (Raymond et al., 2019; Wainwright et al., 2022).

The Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société (TVES) Laboratory is an accredited research unit (ULR 4477) under the joint supervision of the University of Lille (ULille) (part of the SESAM ED no. 73 Economic, Social, Planning and Management Sciences) and the University of the Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO), (part of the SHS ED no. 586 Human and Social Sciences).

The TVES laboratory is affiliated to the MESHS Maison européenne des sciences de l'homme et de la société.

The candidate is expected to have a good command of advanced statistics and a good level of English.

The candidate will be required to travel to meet the various European partners (contacts with the various national meteorological services - travel will be possible but not compulsory). Teleworking is also possible.

Co-direction, international or otherwise, with one of the project partners for example, may also be envisaged.